Monte Carlo modified profile likelihood in models for clustered data

The main focus of the analysts who deal with clustered data is usually not on the clustering variables, and hence the group-specific parameters are treated as nuisance. If a fixed effects formulation is preferred and the total number of clusters is large relative to the single-group sizes, classical frequentist techniques relying on the profile likelihood are often misleading. The use of alternative tools, such as modifications to the profile likelihood or integrated likelihoods, for making accurate inference on a parameter of interest can be complicated by the presence of nonstandard modelling and/or sampling assumptions. We show here how to employ Monte Carlo simulation in order to approximate the modified profile likelihood in some of these unconventional frameworks. The proposed solution is widely applicable and is shown to retain the usual properties of the modified profile likelihood. The approach is examined in two instances particularly relevant in applications, i.e. missing-data models and survival models with unspecified censoring distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is validated via simulation studies and two clinical trial applications

Accurate likelihood inference on the area under the ROC curve for small sample.

The accuracy of a diagnostic test with continuous-scale results is of high importance in clinical medicine. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC)curves, and in particular the area under the curve (AUC), are widely used to examine the effectiveness of diagnostic markers. Classical likelihood-based inference about the AUC has been widely studied under various parametric assumptions, but it is well-known that it can be inaccurate when the sample size is small, in particular in the presence of unknown parameters. The aim of this paper is to propose and discuss modern higher-order likelihood based procedures to obtain accurate point estimators and confidence intervals for the AUC. The accuracy of the proposed methodology is illustrated by simulation studies. Moreover, two real data examples are used to illustrate the application of the proposed methods

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of exocytosis in endocrine cells

open5noMost endocrine cells secrete hormones as a result of Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis, i.e., fusion of the membranes of hormone-containing secretory granules with the cell membrane, which allows the hormone molecules to escape to the extracellular space. As in neurons, electrical activity and cell depolarization open voltage-sensitive Ca(2+) channels, and the resulting Ca(2+) influx elevate the intracellular Ca(2+) concentration, which in turn causes exocytosis. Whereas the main molecular components involved in exocytosis are increasingly well understood, quantitative understanding of the dynamical aspects of exocytosis is still lacking. Due to the nontrivial spatiotemporal Ca(2+) dynamics, which depends on the particular pattern of electrical activity as well as Ca(2+) channel kinetics, exocytosis is dependent on the spatial arrangement of Ca(2+) channels and secretory granules. For example, the creation of local Ca(2+) microdomains, where the Ca(2+) concentration reaches tens of µM, are believed to be important for triggering exocytosis. Spatiotemporal simulations of buffered Ca(2+) diffusion have provided important insight into the interplay between electrical activity, Ca(2+) channel kinetics, and the location of granules and Ca(2+) channels. By confronting simulations with statistical time-to-event (or survival) regression analysis of single granule exocytosis monitored with TIRF microscopy, a direct connection between location and rate of exocytosis can be obtained at the local, single-granule level. To get insight into whole-cell secretion, simplifications of the full spatiotemporal dynamics have shown to be highly helpful. Here, we provide an overview of recent approaches and results for quantitative analysis of Ca(2+) regulated exocytosis of hormone-containing granules.openPedersen, Morten Gram; Tagliavini, Alessia; Cortese, Giuliana; Riz, Michela; Montefusco, FrancescoPedersen, MORTEN GRAM; Tagliavini, Alessia; Cortese, Giuliana; Riz, Michela; Montefusco, Francesc

Impact of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors on mortality during the COVID Pandemic among STEMI patients undergoing mechanical reperfusion : Insight from an international STEMI registry

Background: Concerns have been raised on a potential interaction between renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASI) and the susceptibility to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). No data have been so far reported on the prognostic impact of RASI in patients suffering from ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) during COVID-19 pandemic, which was the aim of the present study. Methods: STEMI patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) and enrolled in the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 registry were included in the present sub-analysis and divided according to RASI therapy at admission. Results: Our population is represented by 6095 patients, of whom 3654 admitted in 2019 and 2441 in 2020. No difference in the prevalence of SARSCoV2 infection was observed according to RASI therapy at admission (2.5% vs 2.1%, p = 0.5), which was associated with a significantly lower mortality (adjusted OR [95% CI]=0.68 [0.51 & ndash;0.90], P = 0.006), confirmed in the analysis restricted to 2020 (adjusted OR [95% CI]=0.5[0.33 & ndash;0.74], P = 0.001). Among the 5388 patients in whom data on in-hospital medication were available, in-hospital RASI therapy was associated with a significantly lower mortality (2.1% vs 16.7%, OR [95% CI]=0.11 [0.084 & ndash;0.14], p < 0.0001), confirmed after adjustment in both periods. Among the 62 SARSCoV-2 positive patients, RASI therapy, both at admission or in-hospital, showed no prognostic effect. Conclusions: This is the first study to investigate the impact of RASI therapy on the prognosis and SARSCoV2 infection of STEMI patients undergoing PPCI during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both pre-admission and in-hospital RASI were associated with lower mortality. Among SARSCoV2-positive patients, both chronic and in-hospital RASI therapy showed no impact on survival.Peer reviewe

Age-Related Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Reperfusion and 30-Day Mortality for STEMI: Results of the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry

Background: The constraints in the management of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) during the COVID-19 pandemic have been suggested to have severely impacted mortality levels. The aim of the current analysis is to evaluate the age-related effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical reperfusion and 30-day mortality for STEMI within the registry ISACS-STEMI COVID-19. Methods: This retrospective multicenter registry was performed in high-volume PPCI centers on four continents and included STEMI patients undergoing PPCI in March-June 2019 and 2020. Patients were divided according to age (= 75 years). The main outcomes were the incidence and timing of PPCI, (ischemia time longer than 12 h and door-to-balloon longer than 30 min), and in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Results: We included 16,683 patients undergoing PPCI in 109 centers. In 2020, during the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PPCI as compared to 2019 (IRR 0.843 (95%-CI: 0.825-0.861, p < 0.0001). We found a significant age-related reduction (7%, p = 0.015), with a larger effect on elderly than on younger patients. Furthermore, we observed significantly higher 30-day mortality during the pandemic period, especially among the elderly (13.6% vs. 17.9%, adjusted HR (95% CI) = 1.55 [1.24-1.93], p < 0.001) as compared to younger patients (4.8% vs. 5.7%; adjusted HR (95% CI) = 1.25 [1.05-1.49], p = 0.013), as a potential consequence of the significantly longer ischemia time observed during the pandemic. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the treatment of patients with STEMI, with a 16% reduction in PPCI procedures, with a larger reduction and a longer delay to treatment among elderly patients, which may have contributed to increase in-hospital and 30-day mortality during the pandemic

Age-Related Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Reperfusion and 30-Day Mortality for STEMI : Results of the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry

Background: The constraints in the management of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) during the COVID-19 pandemic have been suggested to have severely impacted mortality levels. The aim of the current analysis is to evaluate the age-related effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical reperfusion and 30-day mortality for STEMI within the registry ISACS-STEMI COVID-19. Methods: This retrospective multicenter registry was performed in high-volume PPCI centers on four continents and included STEMI patients undergoing PPCI in March–June 2019 and 2020. Patients were divided according to age (< or ≥75 years). The main outcomes were the incidence and timing of PPCI, (ischemia time longer than 12 h and door-to-balloon longer than 30 min), and in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Results: We included 16,683 patients undergoing PPCI in 109 centers. In 2020, during the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PPCI as compared to 2019 (IRR 0.843 (95%-CI: 0.825–0.861, p < 0.0001). We found a significant agerelated reduction (7%, p = 0.015), with a larger effect on elderly than on younger patients. Furthermore, we observed significantly higher 30-day mortality during the pandemic period, especially among the elderly (13.6% vs. 17.9%, adjusted HR (95% CI) = 1.55 [1.24–1.93], p < 0.001) as compared to younger patients (4.8% vs. 5.7%; adjusted HR (95% CI) = 1.25 [1.05–1.49], p = 0.013), as a potential consequence of the significantly longer ischemia time observed during the pandemic. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the treatment of patients with STEMI, with a 16% reduction in PPCI procedures, with a larger reduction and a longer delay to treatment among elderly patients, which may have contributed to increase in-hospital and 30-day mortality during the pandemic

Impact of Smoking Status on Mortality in STEMI Patients Undergoing Mechanical Reperfusion for STEMI : Insights from the ISACS–STEMI COVID-19 Registry

The so-called “smoking paradox”, conditioning lower mortality in smokers among STEMI patients, has seldom been addressed in the settings of modern primary PCI protocols. The ISACS– STEMI COVID-19 is a large-scale retrospective multicenter registry addressing in-hospital mortality, reperfusion, and 30-day mortality among primary PCI patients in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the 16,083 STEMI patients, 6819 (42.3%) patients were active smokers, 2099 (13.1%) previous smokers, and 7165 (44.6%) non-smokers. Despite the impaired preprocedural recanalization (p < 0.001), active smokers had a significantly better postprocedural TIMI flow compared with nonsmokers (p < 0.001); this was confirmed after adjustment for all baseline and procedural confounders, and the propensity score. Active smokers had a significantly lower in-hospital (p < 0.001) and 30-day (p < 0.001) mortality compared with non-smokers and previous smokers; this was confirmed after adjustment for all baseline and procedural confounders, and the propensity score. In conclusion, in our population, active smoking was significantly associated with improved epicardial recanalization and lower in-hospital and 30-day mortality compared with previous and non-smoking histor

Results of the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry

Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.Background. Several reports have demonstrated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management and outcome of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of the current analysis is to investigate the potential gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical reperfusion and 30-day mortality for STEMI patients within the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry. Methods. This retrospective multicenter registry was performed in high-volume primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) centers on four continents and included STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in March–June 2019 and 2020. Patients were divided according to gender. The main outcomes were the incidence and timing of the PPCI, (ischemia time ≥ 12 h and door-to-balloon ≥ 30 min) and in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Results. We included 16683 STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in 109 centers. In 2020 during the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PPCIs compared to 2019 (IRR 0.843 (95% CI: 0.825–0.861, p < 0.0001). We did not find a significant gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the numbers of STEMI patients, which were similarly reduced from 2019 to 2020 in both groups, or in the mortality rates. Compared to prepandemia, 30-day mortality was significantly higher during the pandemic period among female (12.1% vs. 8.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.66 [1.31–2.11], p < 0.001) but not male patients (5.8% vs. 6.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.14 [0.96–1.34], p = 0.12). Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the treatment of patients with STEMI, with a 16% reduction in PPCI procedures similarly observed in both genders. Furthermore, we observed significantly increased in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates during the pandemic only among females. Trial registration number: NCT 04412655.publishersversionpublishe

Gender Difference in the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mechanical Reperfusion and 30-Day Mortality for STEMI: Results of the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry

Background. Several reports have demonstrated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management and outcome of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of the current analysis is to investigate the potential gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical reperfusion and 30-day mortality for STEMI patients within the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 Registry. Methods. This retrospective multicenter registry was performed in high-volume primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) centers on four continents and included STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in March–June 2019 and 2020. Patients were divided according to gender. The main outcomes were the incidence and timing of the PPCI, (ischemia time ≥ 12 h and door-to-balloon ≥ 30 min) and in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Results. We included 16683 STEMI patients undergoing PPCIs in 109 centers. In 2020 during the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PPCIs compared to 2019 (IRR 0.843 (95% CI: 0.825–0.861, p < 0.0001). We did not find a significant gender difference in the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the numbers of STEMI patients, which were similarly reduced from 2019 to 2020 in both groups, or in the mortality rates. Compared to prepandemia, 30-day mortality was significantly higher during the pandemic period among female (12.1% vs. 8.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.66 [1.31–2.11], p < 0.001) but not male patients (5.8% vs. 6.7%; adjusted HR [95% CI] = 1.14 [0.96–1.34], p = 0.12). Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the treatment of patients with STEMI, with a 16% reduction in PPCI procedures similarly observed in both genders. Furthermore, we observed significantly increased in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates during the pandemic only among females. Trial registration number: NCT 04412655

Impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on short-term outcome in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction during COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the international multicenter ISACS-STEMI registry

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is projected to become the third cause of mortality worldwide. COPD shares several pathophysiological mechanisms with cardiovascular disease, especially atherosclerosis. However, no definite answers are available on the prognostic role of COPD in the setting of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), especially during COVID-19 pandemic, among patients undergoing primary angioplasty, that is therefore the aim of the current study. Methods In the ISACS-STEMI COVID-19 registry we included retrospectively patients with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between March and June of 2019 and 2020 from 109 high-volume primary PCI centers in 4 continents. Results A total of 15,686 patients were included in this analysis. Of them, 810 (5.2%) subjects had a COPD diagnosis. They were more often elderly and with a more pronounced cardiovascular risk profile. No preminent procedural dissimilarities were noticed except for a lower proportion of dual antiplatelet therapy at discharge among COPD patients (98.9% vs. 98.1%, P = 0.038). With regards to short-term fatal outcomes, both in-hospital and 30-days mortality occurred more frequently among COPD patients, similarly in pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. However, after adjustment for main baseline differences, COPD did not result as independent predictor for in-hospital death (adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.913[0.658-1.266], P = 0.585) nor for 30-days mortality (adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.850 [0.620-1.164], P = 0.310). No significant differences were detected in terms of SARS-CoV-2 positivity between the two groups. Conclusion This is one of the largest studies investigating characteristics and outcome of COPD patients with STEMI undergoing primary angioplasty, especially during COVID pandemic. COPD was associated with significantly higher rates of in-hospital and 30-days mortality. However, this association disappeared after adjustment for baseline characteristics. Furthermore, COPD did not significantly affect SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Trial registration number: NCT 04412655 (2nd June 2020)